Posted by
Diane Michelle Gollaher on Thursday, June 12, 2008 6:09:32 PM
The first truly general election polls have come in. From what I've seen, they've given Obama around a 6 point lead, a lead that is outside the margin of error and significantly different from the polls taken during the Clinton/Obama nomination fight. Obama's strength as a candidate should not be underestimated and it is, I suppose, possible that he will carry that sort of lead throughout the general election battle. But I doubt it. We tend to see what we want in polls, especially those taken so far away from the actual election. Just as many of us were tempted to attribute McCain's lead during the Clinton/Obama fight solely to his strength as a candidate, many on the left are tempted to attribute Obama's newfound lead solely to his strength as a candidate, ignoring the role outside events play on polls, especially those taken so far away from the actual event. The polls closer to November will probably be somewhere between these two extremes, the candidates running neck to neck or Obama garnering only a slight lead. Some of Obama's current strength is likely a post-nomination bounce.